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Mar 16, 2009
The Emmys Are Coming, The Emmys Are Coming: A Preview (Part One: Drama)
I guess the title says almost everything about this post. Let's just tackle some of the main categories and see what we could expect. Remember, now the Emmys have six nominees, but no panels which means this is based only on popular vote.

Drama Series:

Last year there were six nominees in this category. From them, I expect last year's winner Mad Men to return after winning at the Golden Globes and SAGs and probably take a second win here. It's a great show and is popular enough even if it's on basic cable. Boston Legal has been a favorite of the Emmys since it started and I believe it is invulnerable now that it's on its final season. Dexter is probably safe too after being mentioned at the Globes and SAGs earlier this year (something it hadn't done before).

Of last year's nominees: Damages, Lost and House all look pretty safe for a nomination, but I thin one of them has to get off the list in favor of returning Emmy favorite 24, which is having a nice season after its horrendous sixth season.

HBO won't go easy without a nomination, they used to rule this category and last year they were snubbed! Their shows don't look that likely though, In Treatment and True Blood were nominated for Globes, but neither is that popular. I wouldn't count In Treatment out, since it got some nods last year (and a win for Dianne Wiest). True Blood is in trouble for being a fantasy show. Big Love and The Tudors have made the top 10 before, but it seems the Emmys don't really love these shows. Critical faves Friday Night Lights and Battlestar Galactica seem condemned to not ever make this list and Grey's Anatomy has become a joke.

Prediction:
1) Mad Men
2) Boston Legal
3) Dexter
4) 24
5) Damages
6) Lost
7) House (in case of tie)

Drama Lead Actor

There also was a tie in this category last year, but again, one of the six nominees must go out to make room for Emmy favorite Kiefer Sutherland (24), who got in even the year his show failed to. Hugh Laurie (House), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), James Spader (Boston Legal) and Michael C. Hall (Dexter) are all sure things if you ask me. That would be the nominees if there were only five spots, but who gets the sixth?

Lats year's winner Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) doesn't benefit from the popular vote being in a not-so-popular show and last year's nominee Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment) neither, but both have something for them: Cranston won last year and Byrne just won the Globe and I'm sure HBO will campaign hard for him. Denis Leary (Rescue Me) has been nominated twice before, but was snubbed last year.

Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (The Tudors) could get in after a Globe nod. Ian McShane (Kings) is a critical darling, but his show is not popular, while Simon Baker (The Mentalist) is in a popular show that is not very good or Emmy-friendly. Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights), Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy) and Bill Paxton (Big Love) don't seem very probably.

Prediction:
1) Hugh Laurie (House)
2) Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
3) James Spader (Boston Legal)
4) Kiefer Sutherland (24)
5) Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
6) Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment)
7) Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

Lead Actress Drama:

This category will be ruled by the winners of the past two years: Glenn Close (Damages) and Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters). There's no way they're not gonna make it. Kyra Segdwick (The Closer) is a perennial nominee just waiting for the win, she always gets in. Mariska Hargitay used to be such a nominee until she finally won in 2006, she's probably still a lock at this point and with these new rules.

Holly Hunter (Saving Grace) plays a role that is very popular amongst voters (Sedgwick and Hargitay have similar roles) so she would be an expected nominee, she was already in this list last year. Hot show Mad Men has two gals to choose from: Elizabeth Moss (Sag nominated) and January Jones (Globe nominated). Unless one of them gets down to the supporting category, there'll be a massacre for that nomination. I love Jones and would preffer her nominated, but she failed to make the supporting actress list last year. Anna Paquin (True Blood) just won the Globe and could get in (she's HBO's girl). She also has prestige being an Oscar winner for "The Piano".

Prediction:
1) Glenn Close (Damages)
2) Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters)
3) Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
4) Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: Special Victims Unit)
5) Holly Hunter (Saving Grace)
6) January Jones (Mad Men)
7) Anna Paquin (True Blood)

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